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| Titel |
Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Echer, N. R. Rigozo, D. J. R. Nordemann, L. E. A. Vieira |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 22, no. 6 ; Nr. 22, no. 6 (2004-06-14), S.2239-2243 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014913
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-22-2239-2004.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 is
performed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral
components. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles
17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periods
significant at the 95% confidence level were used in a sum of sine series
to reconstruct sunspot series, to predict the strength of solar cycles 23 and
24. The maximum peak of solar cycles is adequately predicted (cycle 21: 158±13.2
against an observed peak of 155.4; cycle 22: 178<±13.2
against 157.6 observed). Solar cycle 23 was predicted to have a peak in 2000
with maximum amplitude of 125±13.2, in good agreement with the 119.6
observed. The minimum of solar cycle 23 is predicted to occur around
2007-2008. For solar cycle 24, the maximum is predicted to occur in 2012
(115±13.2) or 2013 (117±13.2) and this shall be a very weak
solar cycle. |
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