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| Titel |
Forecast improvement in Lorenz 96 system |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Basnarkov, L. Kocarev |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 19, no. 5 ; Nr. 19, no. 5 (2012-10-02), S.569-575 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014247
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-19-569-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Contemporary numerical weather prediction schemes are based on ensemble
forecasting. Ensemble members are obtained by taking different (perturbed)
models started with different initial conditions. We introduce one type of
improved model that represents interactive ensemble of individual models. The
improved model's performance is tested with the Lorenz 96 toy model. One
complex model is considered as reality, while its imperfect models are taken
to be structurally simpler and with lower resolution. The improved model is
defined as one with tendency that is weighted average of the tendencies of
individual models. The weights are calculated from past observations by
minimizing the average difference between the improved model's tendency and
that of the reality. It is numerically verified that the improved model has
better ability for short-term prediction than any of the individual models. |
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