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| Titel |
Predictability of a low-order interactive ensemble |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Siqueira, B. Kirtman |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 19, no. 2 ; Nr. 19, no. 2 (2012-04-10), S.273-282 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014194
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-19-273-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper, numerical and analytical studies were performed to uncover the
mechanisms controlling the changes in ensemble spread of a low-order coupled
model with multiple atmospheric realizations. An interactive ensemble
approach was applied to a coupled dynamical system based on two versions of
the Lorenz 63 model designed in order to imitate the behavior of a coupled
system with different time scales. In the dynamic system used in this work
the spread of ensemble members is highly dependent on the mean state
corresponding to asymmetries in predictability. The slowness of the slow
model and the intensity of the boundary forcing anomalies both contribute to
the asymmetry and phase locking of both subsystems. The mechanisms
controlling the fast model spread were uncovered revealing uncertainty
dynamics depending on the location of ensemble members in the fast model
phase space and implicitly on the slowness and magnitude of the slow model
anomalies. |
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