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| Titel |
Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory |
| VerfasserIn |
M. D. Martínez, X. Lana, A. Burgueño, C. Serra |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 17, no. 2 ; Nr. 17, no. 2 (2010-03-05), S.93-101 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013655
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-17-93-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, index is
analysed from the point of view of different fractal concepts and dynamic
system theory such as lacunarity, rescaled analysis (Hurst exponent) and
reconstruction theorem (embedding and correlation dimensions, Kolmogorov
entropy and Lyapunov exponents). The main results point out evident signs of
randomness and the necessity of stochastic models to represent time evolution
of the NAO index. The results also show that the monthly NAO index behaves as
a white-noise Gaussian process. The high minimum number of nonlinear
equations needed to describe the physical process governing the NAO index
fluctuations is evidence of its complexity. A notable predictive instability
is indicated by the positive Lyapunov exponents. Besides corroborating the
complex time behaviour of the NAO index, present results suggest that random
Cantor sets would be an interesting tool to model lacunarity and time
evolution of the NAO index. |
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