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| Titel |
Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Shrestha, M. S. Babel, S. Maskey, A. Griensven, S. Uhlenbrook, A. Green, I. Akkharath |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 1 ; Nr. 17, no. 1 (2013-01-07), S.1-20 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013654
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-1-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the
Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and
precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found
to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model
(PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux
attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in
seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal
precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry
season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet
season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in
precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse
gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and
season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream
discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase
in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield
ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in
intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater
(−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A
higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons,
although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months.
The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of
changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As
the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between
the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account
in both sediment management and climate change adaptation. |
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