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Titel |
Operational flood-forecasting in the Piemonte region – development and verification of a fully distributed physically-oriented hydrological model |
VerfasserIn |
D. Rabuffetti, G. Ravazzani, S. Barbero, M. Mancini |
Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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ISSN |
1680-7340
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Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: 9th EGU Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2007) ; Nr. 17 (2009-03-16), S.111-117 |
Datensatznummer |
250013633
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Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/adgeo-17-111-2009.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
A hydrological model for real time flood forecasting to Civil Protection
services requires reliability and rapidity. At present, computational
capabilities overcome the rapidity needs even when a fully distributed
hydrological model is adopted for a large river catchment as the Upper Po
river basin closed at Ponte Becca (nearly 40 000 km2). This approach
allows simulating the whole domain and obtaining the responses of large as
well as of medium and little sized sub-catchments. The FEST-WB hydrological
model (Mancini, 1990; Montaldo et al., 2007; Rabuffetti et al., 2008) is
implemented. The calibration and verification activities are based on more
than 100 flood events, occurred along the main tributaries of the Po river
in the period 2000–2003. More than 300 meteorological stations are used to
obtain the forcing fields, 10 cross sections with continuous and reliable
discharge time series are used for calibration while verification is
performed on about 40 monitored cross sections. Furthermore meteorological
forecasting models are used to force the hydrological model with
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for 36 h horizon in
"operational setting" experiments. Particular care is devoted to
understanding how QPF affects the accuracy of the Quantitative Discharge
Forecasts (QDFs) and to assessing the QDF uncertainty impact on the warning
system reliability. Results are presented either in terms of QDF and of
warning issues highlighting the importance of an "operational based"
verification approach. |
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