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| Titel |
The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin |
| VerfasserIn |
B. L. Harding, A. W. Wood, J. R. Prairie |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 11 ; Nr. 16, no. 11 (2012-11-05), S.3989-4007 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013554
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-3989-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow
in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble
approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate projections
from 16 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a macroscale
hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow
range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30%
to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although prior studies
and associated media coverage have focused heavily on the likelihood of a
drier future for the Colorado River Basin, approximately 25 to 35% of
the ensemble of runs, by 2099 and 2039, respectively, result in no change or
increases in streamflow. The broad range of projected impacts is primarily
the result of uncertainty in projections of future precipitation, and a
relatively small part of the variability of precipitation across the
projections can be attributed to the effect of emissions pathways. The
simulated evolution of future temperature is strongly influenced by
emissions, but temperature has a smaller influence than precipitation on
flow. Period change statistics (i.e., the change in flow from one 30-yr
period to another) vary as much within a model ensemble as between models
and emissions pathways. Even by the end of the current century, the
variability across the projections is much greater than changes in the
ensemble mean. The relatively large ensemble analysis described herein
provides perspective on earlier studies that have used fewer scenarios, and
suggests that impact analyses relying on one or a few climate scenarios are
unacceptably influenced by the choice of projections. |
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