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| Titel |
Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
P. J. Smith, K. J. Beven  , A. H. Weerts, D. Leedal |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 8 ; Nr. 16, no. 8 (2012-08-16), S.2783-2799 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013428
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-2783-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a
flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an
adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the
evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting
probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offer a computationally efficient method for providing
probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output. |
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