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| Titel |
Modelling irrigated maize with a combination of coupled-model simulation and uncertainty analysis, in the northwest of China |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Li, W. Kinzelbach, J. Zhou, G. D. Cheng, X. Li |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 5 ; Nr. 16, no. 5 (2012-05-22), S.1465-1480 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013300
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-1465-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The hydrologic model HYDRUS-1-D and the crop growth model WOFOST are coupled
to efficiently manage water resources in agriculture and improve the
prediction of crop production. The results of the coupled model are
validated by experimental studies of irrigated-maize done in the middle
reaches of northwest China's Heihe River, a semi-arid to arid region. Good
agreement is achieved between the simulated evapotranspiration, soil
moisture and crop production and their respective field measurements made
under current maize irrigation and fertilization. Based on the calibrated
model, the scenario analysis reveals that the most optimal amount of
irrigation is 500–600 mm in this region. However, for regions without
detailed observation, the results of the numerical simulation can be
unreliable for irrigation decision making owing to the shortage of
calibrated model boundary conditions and parameters. So, we develop a method
of combining model ensemble simulations and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis
to speculate the probability of crop production. In our studies, the
uncertainty analysis is used to reveal the risk of facing a loss of crop
production as irrigation decreases. The global sensitivity analysis is used
to test the coupled model and further quantitatively analyse the impact of
the uncertainty of coupled model parameters and environmental scenarios on
crop production. This method can be used for estimation in regions with no
or reduced data availability. |
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