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| Titel |
Using comparative analysis to teach about the nature of nonstationarity in future flood predictions |
| VerfasserIn |
S. B. Shaw, M. T. Walter |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 5 ; Nr. 16, no. 5 (2012-05-03), S.1269-1279 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013286
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-1269-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Comparative analysis has been a little used approach to the teaching of
hydrology. Instead, hydrology is often taught by introducing fundamental
principles with the assumption that they are sufficiently universal to apply
across most any hydrologic system. In this paper, we illustrate the value of
using comparative analysis to enhance students' insights into the degree and
predictability of future non-stationarity in flood frequency analysis.
Traditionally, flood frequency analysis is taught from a statistical
perspective that can offer limited means of understanding the nature of
non-stationarity. By visually comparing graphics of mean daily flows and
annual peak discharges (plotted against Julian day) for watersheds in
a variety of locales, distinct differences in the timing and nature of flooding
in different regions of the US becomes readily apparent. Such differences
highlight the dominant hydroclimatological drivers of different watersheds.
When linked with information on the predictability of hydroclimatic drivers
(hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, snowpack melt, convective events) in a
changing climate, such comparative analysis provides students with an
improved physical understanding of flood processes and a stronger foundation
on which to make judgments about how to modify statistical techniques for
making predictions in a changing climate. We envision that such comparative
analysis could be incorporated into a number of other traditional hydrologic
topics. |
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