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| Titel |
Assessing water resources in China using PRECIS projections and a VIC model |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Q. Wang, J. Y. Zhang, J. L. Jin, T. C. Pagano, R. Calow, Z. X. Bao, C. S. Liu, Y. L. Liu, X. L. Yan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 1 ; Nr. 16, no. 1 (2012-01-25), S.231-240 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013125
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-231-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change is now a major environmental and developmental
issue, and one that will increase the challenge of sustainable water
resources management. In order to assess the implications of climate change
for water resources in China, we calibrated a Variable Infiltration Capacity
(VIC) model with a resolution of 50×50 km2 using data from 125
well-gauged catchments. Based on similarities in climate conditions, soil
texture and other variables, model parameters were transferred to other
areas not covered by the calibrated catchments. Taking runoff in the period
1961–1990 as a baseline, we studied the impact of climate change on runoff
under three emissions scenarios, A2, B2 and A1B. Model findings indicate
that annual runoff over China as a whole will probably increase by
approximately 3–10% by 2050, but with quite uneven spatial and temporal
distribution. The prevailing pattern of "north dry and south wet" in China
is likely to be exacerbated under global warming. |
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