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| Titel |
Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Singla, J.-P. Céron, E. Martin, F. Regimbeau, M. Déqué, F. Habets, J.-P. Vidal |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 1 ; Nr. 16, no. 1 (2012-01-24), S.201-216 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013123
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-201-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Sources of spring predictability of the hydrological system over France were
studied on a seasonal time scale over the 1960–2005 period. Two random
sampling experiments were set up in order to test the relative importance of
the land surface initial state and the atmospheric forcing. The experiments
were based on the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological suite which
computed soil moisture and river flow forecasts over a 8-km grid and more
than 880 river-gauging stations. Results showed that the predictability of
hydrological variables primarily depended on the seasonal atmospheric
forcing (mostly temperature and total precipitation) over most plains,
whereas it mainly depended on snow cover over high mountains. However, the
Seine catchment area was an exception as the skill mainly came from the
initial state of its large and complex aquifers. Seasonal meteorological
hindcasts with the Météo-France ARPEGE climate model were then used
to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model and obtain seasonal hydrological
forecasts from 1960 to 2005 for the entire March-April-May period. Scores
from this seasonal hydrological forecasting suite could thus be compared
with the random atmospheric experiment. Soil moisture and river flow skill
scores clearly showed the added value in seasonal meteorological forecasts
in the north of France, contrary to the Mediterranean area where values
worsened. |
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