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| Titel |
Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Liu, P. Willems, X. L. Pan, Anming Bao, X. Chen, F. Veroustraete, Q. H. Dong |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 11 ; Nr. 15, no. 11 (2011-11-18), S.3511-3527 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013028
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-3511-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Tarim river basin in China is a huge inland arid basin, which is
expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water
resources originate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper
focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate
change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and
more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both
lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of
the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include
processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were
extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs)
and applied on the station-based, observed historical data using a
perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation
involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation
to the wet-day rainfall intensities. For temperature and potential
evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based
changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and
the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of
impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs) were summarized in high, mean,
and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in
winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous areas. Due to
temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods
are pushed forward in time. Although the qualitive impact results are highly
consistent among the different GCM runs considered, the precise quantitative
impact results varied significantly depending on the GCM run and the
hydrological model. |
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