 |
| Titel |
Effects of disregarding seasonality on the distribution of hydrological extremes |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Allamano, F. Laio, P. Claps |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 10 ; Nr. 15, no. 10 (2011-10-20), S.3207-3215 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012997
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-3207-2011.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper deals with the seasonality of hydroclimatic extremes and with the
problem of accounting for their non-homogeneous character in determining the
design value. To this aim we devise a simple stochastic experiment in which
extremes are produced by a non-homogeneous extreme value generation process.
The design values are estimated in closed analytical form both in a peak over
threshold framework and by using the standard annual maxima approach. In this
completely controlled world of generated hydrological extremes, a statistical
measure of the error associated to the adoption of a homogeneous model is
introduced. The sensitivity of this measure, named return period ratio, to
the typology and strength of seasonality is investigated. We find that
neglecting seasonality induces a downward bias in design value estimators.
The magnitude of the bias may be large when the peak over threshold approach
is adopted, while the return period distortion is limited when the annual
maxima are considered. An application to rainfall data from a
30 000 km2 region located in North-Western Italy is presented to
better clarify the effects of disregarding seasonality in a real case. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|