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| Titel |
On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it) |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Beven  , P. J. Smith, A. Wood |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 10 ; Nr. 15, no. 10 (2011-10-13), S.3123-3133 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012991
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-3123-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological
modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals
resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary means
that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals can
be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions. To do so would
be to greatly overestimate the information content in a set of calibration
data and increase the possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some
principles of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior to
evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed. An example
demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter values of a hydrological
model. |
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