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| Titel |
Copula-based statistical refinement of precipitation in RCM simulations over complex terrain |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Laux, S. Vogl, W. Qiu, H. R. Knoche, H. Kunstmann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 7 ; Nr. 15, no. 7 (2011-07-29), S.2401-2419 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012902
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2401-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper presents a new Copula-based method for further downscaling
regional climate simulations. It is developed, applied and evaluated for
selected stations in the alpine region of Germany. Apart from the common way
to use Copulas to model the extreme values, a strategy is proposed which
allows to model continuous time series. As the concept
of Copulas requires independent and identically distributed
(iid) random variables, meteorological fields are transformed using
an ARMA-GARCH time series model. In this paper, we focus on the
positive pairs of observed and modelled (RCM) precipitation.
According to the empirical copulas, significant upper and lower tail dependence
between observed and modelled precipitation can be observed.
These dependence structures are further conditioned on the prevailing large-scale
weather situation.
Based on the derived theoretical Copula models, stochastic rainfall simulations are performed, finally allowing for bias corrected
and locally refined RCM simulations. |
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