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| Titel |
Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling |
| VerfasserIn |
A. K. Gain, W. W. Immerzeel, F. C. Sperna Weiland, M. F. P. Bierkens |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 5 ; Nr. 15, no. 5 (2011-05-20), S.1537-1545 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012787
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-1537-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The
Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the
world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme
monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will
impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model
studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of
climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply
a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs
from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate
models (GCMs). Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are
required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and
long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method
results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the
period 1961–2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project
future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme
low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However
a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination
with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh.
The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that
existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models
can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order
the effects of climate change for specific river basins. |
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