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| Titel |
Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems |
| VerfasserIn |
Z. Ye, W. W. Hsieh |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 15, no. 5 ; Nr. 15, no. 5 (2008-10-29), S.793-801 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012765
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-15-793-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical
system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical
weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
phenomenon, in an intermediate coupled equatorial Pacific model run under the
1961–1975 and the 1981–1995 climatologies, the latter climatology led to
longer-period oscillations, thus greater predictability. In the Lorenz (1963)
3-component chaos system, by adjusting the model parameters to increase the
nonlinearity of the system, a similar increase in predictability was found.
Thus in the ENSO and Lorenz systems, enhanced nonlinearity from changes in
the governing equations could produce longer period oscillations with
increased predictability. |
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