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| Titel |
Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River basin as a result of climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
D. A. Hughes, D. G. Kingston, M. C. Todd |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 3 ; Nr. 15, no. 3 (2011-03-16), S.931-941 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012690
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-931-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper assesses the hydrological response to scenarios of climate change
in the Okavango River catchment in Southern Africa. Climate scenarios are
constructed representing different changes in global mean temperature from
an ensemble of 7 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a
substantial change in mean flow associated with a global warming of 2 °C.
However, there is considerable uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of
the projected changes between different climate models, implying that the
ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact. The
uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is
considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model
parameterisation. There is also a clear need to evaluate the physical
mechanisms associated with the model projected changes in this region. The
implications for water resource management policy are considered. |
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