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| Titel |
HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Schaefli, C. J. Harman, M. Sivapalan  , S. J. Schymanski |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 2 ; Nr. 15, no. 2 (2011-02-24), S.635-646 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012650
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-635-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably
transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult
because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define
parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the
structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely
temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This
remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in
hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this
paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal
principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to
this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and
time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model
structure (including parameter values) and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment
in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological
laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at
many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover
these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape
structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past
co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new
behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology
where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond
what has been observed or experienced before. |
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