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| Titel |
Reliability and robustness of rainfall compound distribution model based on weather pattern sub-sampling |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Garavaglia, M. Lang, E. Paquet, J. Gailhard, R. Garçon, B. Renard |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 2 ; Nr. 15, no. 2 (2011-02-09), S.519-532 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012641
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-519-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A new probabilistic model for daily rainfall, named MEWP (Multi Exponential
Weather Pattern) distribution, has been introduced in Garavaglia et al. (2010).
This model provides estimates of extreme rainfall quantiles using a mixture
of exponential distributions. Each exponential distribution applies to a
specific sub-sample of rainfall observations, corresponding to one of eight
typical atmospheric circulation patterns that are relevant for France and the
surrounding area.
The aim of this paper is to validate the MEWP model by assessing its
reliability and robustness with rainfall data from France, Spain and
Switzerland. Data include 37 long series for the period 1904–2003, and a
regional data set of 478 rain gauges for the period 1954–2005. Two
complementary properties are investigated: (i) the reliability of estimates,
i.e. the agreement between the estimated probabilities of exceedance and the
actual exceedances observed on the dataset; (ii) the robustness of extreme
quantiles and associated confidence intervals, assessed using various
sub-samples of the long data series. New specific criteria are proposed to
quantify reliability and robustness. The MEWP model is compared to standard
models (seasonalised Generalised Extreme Value and Generalised Pareto
distributions). In order to evaluate the suitability of the exponential model
used for each weather pattern (WP), a general case of the MEWP distribution,
using Generalized Pareto distributions for each WP, is also considered.
Concerning the considered dataset, the exponential hypothesis of asymptotic
behaviour of each seasonal and weather pattern rainfall records, appears to
be reasonable. The results highlight : (i) the interest of WP sub-sampling
that lead to significant improvement in reliability models performances; (ii)
the low level of robustness of the models based on at-site estimation of
shape parameter; (iii) the MEWP distribution proved to be robust and
reliable, demonstrating the interest of the proposed approach. |
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