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| Titel |
Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales) |
| VerfasserIn |
A. H. Weerts, H. C. Winsemius, J. S. Verkade |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2011-01-21), S.255-265 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012600
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-255-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper, a technique is presented for assessing the predictive
uncertainty of rainfall-runoff and hydraulic forecasts. The technique
conditions forecast uncertainty on the forecasted value itself, based on
retrospective Quantile Regression of hindcasted water level forecasts and
forecast errors. To test the robustness of the method, a number of
retrospective forecasts for different catchments across England and Wales
having different size and hydrological characteristics have been used to
derive in a probabilistic sense the relation between simulated values of
water levels and matching errors. From this study, we can conclude that
using Quantile Regression for estimating forecast errors conditional on the
forecasted water levels provides a relatively simple, efficient and robust
means for estimation of predictive uncertainty. |
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