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| Titel |
Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Stoll, H. J. Hendricks Franssen, M. Butts, W. Kinzelbach |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2011-01-03), S.21-38 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012583
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-21-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change related modifications in the spatio-temporal distribution of
precipitation and evapotranspiration will have an impact on groundwater
resources. This study presents a modelling approach exploiting the advantages
of integrated hydrological modelling and a broad climate model basis. We
applied the integrated MIKE SHE model on a perialpine, small catchment in
northern Switzerland near Zurich. To examine the impact of climate change we
forced the hydrological model with data from eight GCM-RCM combinations
showing systematic biases which are corrected by three different statistical
downscaling methods, not only for precipitation but also for the variables
that govern potential evapotranspiration. The downscaling methods are
evaluated in a split sample test and the sensitivity of the downscaling
procedure on the hydrological fluxes is analyzed. The RCMs resulted in very
different projections of potential evapotranspiration and, especially,
precipitation. All three downscaling methods reduced the differences between
the predictions of the RCMs and all corrected predictions showed no future
groundwater stress which can be related to an expected increase in
precipitation during winter. It turned out that especially the timing of the
precipitation and thus recharge is very important for the future development
of the groundwater levels. However, the simulation experiments revealed the
weaknesses of the downscaling methods which directly influence the predicted
hydrological fluxes, and thus also the predicted groundwater levels. The
downscaling process is identified as an important source of uncertainty in
hydrological impact studies, which has to be accounted for. Therefore it is
strongly recommended to test different downscaling methods by using
verification data before applying them to climate model data. |
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