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| Titel |
Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Stahl, H. Hisdal, J. Hannaford, L. M. Tallaksen, H. A. J. Lanen, E. Sauquet, S. Demuth, M. Fendekova, J. Jódar |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 12 ; Nr. 14, no. 12 (2010-12-01), S.2367-2382 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012518
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-2367-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Streamflow observations from near-natural catchments are of paramount
importance for detection and attribution studies, evaluation of large-scale
model simulations, and assessment of water management, adaptation and policy
options. This study investigates streamflow trends in a newly-assembled,
consolidated dataset of near-natural streamflow records from 441 small
catchments in 15 countries across Europe. The period 1962–2004 provided the
best spatial coverage, but analyses were also carried out for longer time
periods (with fewer stations), starting in 1932, 1942 and 1952. Trends were
calculated by the slopes of the Kendall-Theil robust line for standardized
annual and monthly streamflow, as well as for summer low flow magnitude and timing.
A regionally coherent picture of annual streamflow trends emerged,
with negative trends in southern and eastern regions, and generally positive
trends elsewhere. Trends in monthly streamflow for 1962–2004 elucidated
potential causes for these changes, as well as for changes in hydrological
regimes across Europe. Positive trends were found in the winter months in
most catchments. A marked shift towards negative trends was observed in
April, gradually spreading across Europe to reach a maximum extent in
August. Low flows have decreased in most regions where the lowest mean
monthly flow occurs in summer, but vary for catchments which have flow
minima in winter and secondary low flows in summer. The study largely
confirms findings from national and regional scale trend analyses, but
clearly adds to these by confirming that these tendencies are part of
coherent patterns of change, which cover a much larger region. The broad,
continental-scale patterns of change are mostly congruent with the
hydrological responses expected from future climatic changes, as projected
by climate models. The patterns observed could hence provide a valuable
benchmark for a number of different studies and model simulations. |
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