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| Titel |
Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions |
| VerfasserIn |
D. R. Archer, N. Forsythe, H. J. Fowler, S. M. Shah |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 8 ; Nr. 14, no. 8 (2010-08-27), S.1669-1680 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012407
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-1669-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain
sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay
of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate
change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food
security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to
runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are
already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected
population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir
storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of
groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus
Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for
irrigation.
The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered
in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on
melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on
concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most
notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in
favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three
regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is
mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by
socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and
the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still
far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable
guide to the future. |
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