 |
| Titel |
Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management |
| VerfasserIn |
W. Buytaert, M. Vuille, A. Dewulf, R. Urrutia, A. Karmalkar, R. Célleri |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 7 ; Nr. 14, no. 7 (2010-07-15), S.1247-1258 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012367
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-1247-2010.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources
worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing
climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between
available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional
climate models (RCMs) are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the
outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run
and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain
region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved
representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for
water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has
a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to
the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed
capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is
prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It
is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent
local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in
downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented.
Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological
model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|