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| Titel |
The hydrological response of the Ourthe catchment to climate change as modelled by the HBV model |
| VerfasserIn |
T. L. A. Driessen, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, W. Terink, P. Hazenberg, P. J. J. F. Torfs, R. Uijlenhoet |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 4 ; Nr. 14, no. 4 (2010-04-12), S.651-665 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012267
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-651-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Meuse is an important river in Western Europe, which is almost exclusively
rain-fed. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics due to climate
change, therefore, are expected to have a considerable effect on the
hydrological regime of the river Meuse. We focus on an important tributary of
the Meuse, the Ourthe, measuring about 1600 km2. The well-known
hydrological model HBV is forced with three high-resolution (0.088°)
regional climate scenarios, each based on one of three different IPCC
CO2 emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. To represent the current
climate, a reference model run at the same resolution is used. Prior to
running the hydrological model, the biases in the climate model output are
investigated and corrected for. Different approaches to correct the
distributed climate model output using single-site observations are compared.
Correcting the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is found to
give the best results, but still large differences exist between observations
and simulations. The bias corrected data are then used to force HBV. Results
indicate a small increase in overall discharge, especially for the B1 scenario
during the beginning of the 21st century. Towards the end of the
century, all scenarios show a decrease in summer discharge, partially because
of the diminished buffering effect by the snow pack, and an increased
discharge in winter. It should be stressed, however, that we used results
from only one GCM (the only one available at such a high resolution). It
would be interesting to repeat the analysis with multiple models. |
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