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| Titel |
El Niño – related precipitation variability in Perú |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Lagos, Y. Silva, E. Nickl, K. Mosquera |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 2nd EGU Alexander von Humboldt Conference "The role of Geophysics in Natural Disaster Prevention" ; Nr. 14 (2008-04-10), S.231-237 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012106
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-14-231-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The relationship between monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies in the commonly used El Niño regions and precipitation for 44
stations in Perú is documented for 1950–2002. Linear lag correlation
analysis is employed to establish the potential for statistical
precipitation forecasts from SSTs. Useful monthly mean precipitation anomaly
forecasts are possible for several locations and calendar months if SST
anomalies in El Niño 1+2, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4 regions are
available. Prediction of SST anomalies in El Niño regions is routinely
available from Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, with reasonable skill in the
El Niño 3.4 region, but the prediction in El Niño 1+2 region is less
reliable. The feasibility of using predicted SST anomalies in the El
Niño 3.4 region to predict SST anomalies in El Niño 1+2 region is
discussed. |
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