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| Titel |
The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
J. C. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, M. H. Ramos, S. Gentilini |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 13, no. 2 ; Nr. 13, no. 2 (2009-02-05), S.141-153 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011756
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-13-141-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) has been producing
probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint
Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing
preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing
medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information,
from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.
This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill
assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the
development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic
principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of
existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill
of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is
based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and
forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into
account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive
forecasts.
Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the
analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS.
Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their
strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of
incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range
forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts. |
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