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| Titel |
Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Colette, C. Granier, Ø. Hodnebrog, H. Jakobs, A. Maurizi, A. Nyiri, S. Rao, M. Amann, B. Bessagnet, A. D'Angiola, M. Gauss, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, F. Meleux, M. Memmesheimer, A. Mieville, L. Rouïl, F. Russo, S. Schucht, D. Simpson, F. Stordal, F. Tampieri, M. Vrac |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 21 ; Nr. 12, no. 21 (2012-11-13), S.10613-10630 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011586
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-10613-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two
emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment
including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are
investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric
chemistry transport models.
A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and
robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies
on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model
spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the
ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models
that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is
modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A
statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the
modelled projection. Last, the modelling experiment is related to a hind-cast
study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models
were extensively documented.
The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss
policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone
precursors such as NOx will drop down to 30% to 50% of their
current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O3
will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall
O3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O3
levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their
current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of
daily maximum O3 is higher than 120 μg m−3 more than 25
days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%.
We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both
scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional
cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by
the climate policy. |
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