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| Titel |
Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Mahmud, M. Hixson, M. J. Kleeman |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 16 ; Nr. 12, no. 16 (2012-08-17), S.7453-7463 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011396
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-7453-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of
particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using
the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as
usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for
the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air
quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the
present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions.
Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10
total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were
calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air
basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air
Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with
extreme events.
The current study found that the change in annual-average
population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change
between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not
statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the
annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with
notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3%) and organic carbon (OC;
−3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary
concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3%) and food cooking (−4%).
In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in
population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California
during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration
experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV
increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate
matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused
increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to
higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion
particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire
state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources
such as shipping (−61%) during extreme events. The combination of these
factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles
during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by
58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%. |
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