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| Titel |
Evaluation of classical spatial-analysis schemes of extreme rainfall |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Ceresetti, E. Ursu, J. Carreau, S. Anquetin, J. D. Creutin, L. Gardes, S. Girard, G. Molinié |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 11 ; Nr. 12, no. 11 (2012-11-06), S.3229-3240 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011184
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-3229-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Extreme rainfall is classically estimated using raingauge data at raingauge locations.
An important related issue is to assess return levels of extreme rainfall at ungauged sites.
Classical methods consist in interpolating extreme-value models. In this paper, such methods are referred to as regionalization schemes.
Our goal is to evaluate three classical regionalization schemes. Each scheme
consists of an extreme-value model (block maxima, peaks over threshold) taken
from extreme-value theory plus a method to interpolate the parameters of the
statistical model throughout the Cévennes-Vivarais region. From the
interpolated parameters, the 100-yr quantile level can be estimated over this
whole region. A reference regionalization scheme is made of the couple
block maxima/kriging, where kriging is an optimal interpolation method. The
two other schemes differ from the reference by replacing either the
extreme-value model block maxima by peaks over threshold or kriging by a
neural network interpolation procedure. Hyper-parameters are selected by
cross-validation and the three regionalization schemes are compared by double
cross-validation. Our evaluation criteria are based on the ability to
interpolate the 100-yr return level both in terms of precision and spatial
distribution. It turns out that the best results are obtained by the
regionalization scheme combining the peaks-over-threshold method with
kriging. |
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