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| Titel |
Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Vié, G. Molinié, O. Nuissier, B. Vincendon, V. Ducrocq, F. Bouttier, E. Richard |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 8 ; Nr. 12, no. 8 (2012-08-21), S.2631-2645 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011054
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2631-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
An assessment of the performance of different convection-permitting ensemble
prediction systems (EPSs) is performed, with a focus on Heavy Precipitating
Events (HPEs). The convective-scale EPS configuration includes perturbations
of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) by using a global ensemble to provide
LBCs, initial conditions (ICs) through an ensemble data assimilation
technique and perturbations of microphysical parameterisations to account
for part of model errors. A probabilistic evaluation is conducted over an
18-day period. A clear improvement is found when uncertainties on LBCs and
ICs are considered together, but the chosen microphysical perturbations have
no significant impact on probabilistic scores.
Innovative evaluation processes for three HPE case studies are implemented.
First, maxima diagrams provide a multi-scale analysis of intense rainfall.
Second, an hydrological evaluation is performed through the computation of
discharge forecasts using hourly ensemble precipitation forecasts as an
input. All ensembles behave similarly, but differences are found highlighting
the impact of microphysical perturbations on HPEs forecasts, especially for
cases involving complex small-scale processes. |
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