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| Titel |
Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE |
| VerfasserIn |
M. W. Rotach, M. Arpagaus, M. Dorninger, C. Hegg, A. Montani, R. Ranzi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 8 ; Nr. 12, no. 8 (2012-08-03), S.2439-2448 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011039
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2439-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research
Programme (WWRP) related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its goal
was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of
orographically influenced (determined) precipitation in the Alps and its
consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus
was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events.
The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) ran from June to November~2007,
during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many
individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil
protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system's core
piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric
and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic) and
corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats.
Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made
available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information
was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric
forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies.
In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its
outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with
respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of
ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use
with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of
forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the
project (end user workshops, questionnaires) and some general conclusions
concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn. |
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