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| Titel |
An extended Kalman-filter for regional scale inverse emission estimation |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Brunner, S. Henne, C. A. Keller, S. Reimann, M. K. Vollmer, S. O'Doherty, M. Maione |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 7 ; Nr. 12, no. 7 (2012-04-11), S.3455-3478 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011022
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-3455-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A Kalman-filter based inverse emission estimation method for long-lived trace
gases is presented for use in conjunction with a Lagrangian particle
dispersion model like FLEXPART. The sequential nature of the approach allows
tracing slow seasonal and interannual changes rather than estimating a single
period-mean emission field. Other important features include the estimation
of a slowly varying concentration background at each measurement station, the
possibility to constrain the solution to non-negative emissions, the
quantification of uncertainties, the consideration of temporal correlations
in the residuals, and the applicability to potentially large inversion
problems. The method is first demonstrated for a set of synthetic
observations created from a prescribed emission field with different levels
of (correlated) noise, which closely mimics true observations. It is then
applied to real observations of the three halocarbons HFC-125, HFC-152a and
HCFC-141b at the remote research stations Jungfraujoch and Mace Head for the
quantification of emissions in Western European countries from 2006 to 2010.
Estimated HFC-125 emissions are mostly consistent with national totals
reported to UNFCCC in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol and show a
generally increasing trend over the considered period. Results for HFC-152a
are much more variable with estimated emissions being both higher and lower
than reported emissions in different countries. The highest emissions of the
order of 700–800 Mg yr−1 are estimated for Italy, which so far does
not report HFC-152a emissions. Emissions of HCFC-141b show a continuing
strong decrease as expected due to its controls in developed countries under
the Montreal Protocol. Emissions from France, however, were still rather
large, in the range of 700–1000 Mg yr−1 in the years 2006 and 2007
but strongly declined thereafter. |
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