 |
| Titel |
The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: validation of the methodology and verification |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Marsigli, F. Boccanera, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1023-5809
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 12, no. 4 ; Nr. 12, no. 4 (2005-05-20), S.527-536 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010677
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-12-527-2005.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running
every day at ECMWF since November 2002. A number of runs of the
non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every
day, nested on members of the ECMWF global ensemble. The limited-area
ensemble forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic
products are disseminated to several national and regional weather
services.
Some changes of the operational suite have recently been made, on the basis
of the results of a statistical analysis of the methodology. The analysis
is presented in this paper, showing the benefit of increasing the number of
ensemble members.
The system has been designed to have a probabilistic support at the
mesoscale, focusing the attention on extreme precipitation events.
In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS in forecasting precipitation
is presented. An objective verification in terms of probabilistic indices
is made, using a dense network of observations covering a part of the COSMO
domain. The system is compared with ECMWF EPS, showing an improvement of
the limited-area high-resolution system with respect to the global
ensemble system in the forecast of high precipitation values. The impact of
the use of different schemes for the parametrisation of the convection in
the limited-area model is also assessed, showing that this have a minor
impact with respect to run the model with different initial and boundary
condition. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|