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| Titel |
Applicability of the Decision Matrix of North Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System to the Italian tsunamis |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Tinti, L. Graziani, B. Brizuela, A. Maramai, S. Gallazzi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 3 ; Nr. 12, no. 3 (2012-03-30), S.843-857 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010625
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-843-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami catastrophe, UNESCO through the IOC
(Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission) sponsored the establishment of
Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICG) with the aim to devise and
implement Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) in all the oceans exposed to
tsunamis, in addition to the one already in operation in the Pacific (PTWS).
In this context, since 2005, efforts have begun for the establishment of TWSs in
the Indian Ocean (IOTWS), in the Caribbean area (CARIBE EWS) and in the
North Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAMTWS).
In this paper, we focus on a specific tool that was first introduced in the
PTWS routine operations, i.e., the Decision Matrix (DM). This is an
easy-to-use table establishing a link between the main parameters of an
earthquake and the possible ensuing tsunami in order to make quick decision
on the type of alert bulletins that a Tsunami Warning Center launches to its
recipients. In the process of implementation of a regional TWS for the NEAM
area, two distinct DMs were recently proposed by the ICG/NEAMTWS, one for
the Atlantic and the other for the entire Mediterranean area.
This work applies the Mediterranean NEAMTWS DM to the earthquakes recorded
in Italy and compares the action predicted by the DM vs. the action that
should be appropriate in view of the observed tsunami characteristics with
the aim to establish how good the performance of the Italian TWS will be
when it uses the DM for future events. To this purpose, we make use of the
parametric catalogue of the Italian earthquakes (CPTI04) compiled in 2004
and the most recent compilation of the Italian tsunami, based on the Italian
Tsunami Catalogue of 2004 and the subsequent revisions. In order to better
compare the TWS actions, we have identified four different kinds of action
coding them from 0 to 3 according to the tsunami severity and have further
considered three different distance ranges where these actions apply, that
is local, regional and basin-wide, that refer to the distance of the message
recipients from the tsunami source. The result of our analysis is that the
actions prescribed by the DM are adequate only in 45%–55% of the
cases, overestimations are about 37% and underestimations are the rest.
As a whole, the predictive ability of the DM is not satisfactory, which
implies that recipients have the difficult task in managing bulletins carrying
a great deal of uncertainty and on the other hand also suggests that
strategies to improve the DM or to go beyond the DM need to be found. |
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