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| Titel |
Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Droogers, A. Loon, W. W. Immerzeel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 12, no. 2 ; Nr. 12, no. 2 (2008-04-11), S.669-678 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010585
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-12-669-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of
climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that
unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as
in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario
model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative
procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio
(MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment
studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a
climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was
used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two
climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact
assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the
quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate
change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on
threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is
an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was
concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more
robust impact assessment analyses. |
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