 |
| Titel |
Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Posch, J. Aherne, M. Forsius, S. Fronzek, N. Veijalainen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 12, no. 2 ; Nr. 12, no. 2 (2008-03-05), S.449-463 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010568
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-12-449-2008.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in
Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake
catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future
deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction
policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible
reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived
from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global
scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and
B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were
used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3
(highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted
change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the
Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence
of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also
explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and
sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies
hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of
soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR
emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and
precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater
precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher
temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated
that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding
influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the
corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH
due to reductions in acidifying depositions. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|