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| Titel |
Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability |
| VerfasserIn |
P. J. Ward, H. Renssen, J. C. J. H. Aerts, R. T. Balen, J. Vandenberghe |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 12, no. 1 ; Nr. 12, no. 1 (2008-01-31), S.159-175 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010466
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-12-159-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest
Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research
theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the
last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult
to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and
greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To
address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a
hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two
time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes
anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost
fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on
historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge
(260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1),
and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65
years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be
ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of
climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated
mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century
studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite
an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of
large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions
(recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate
change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land
use change as the dominant forcing mechanism. |
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