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| Titel |
Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Weiss, M. Flörke, L. Menzel, J. Alcamo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Mediterranean storms and extreme events in an era of climate change ; Nr. 12 (2007-11-02), S.145-151 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010370
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-12-145-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought
frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by
the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate
changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general
circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is
estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part
of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year
drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a
minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify
the situation. |
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