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| Titel |
Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models – the flash flood cases of 11-13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain) |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Barrera, V. Altava-Ortiz, M. C. Llasat, M. Barnolas |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Mediterranean storms and extreme events in an era of climate change ; Nr. 12 (2007-09-21), S.121-126 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010367
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-12-121-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced
along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall
event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total
amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm.
Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities
were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the
efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have
been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding
extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based
on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the
main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the
formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains
the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the
analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values
and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database
would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed
precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast)
methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the
rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them. |
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