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| Titel |
Earth's energy imbalance and implications |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, K. Schuckmann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 24 ; Nr. 11, no. 24 (2011-12-22), S.13421-13449 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010310
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-13421-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth
is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat,
even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy
imbalance, 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during the 6-yr period 2005–2010,
confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving
global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat
gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We
conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep
ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made
aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be −1.6 ± 0.3 W m−2,
implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud
changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large
forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to
understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean
heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo
aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during
the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal
expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate
acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade. |
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