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| Titel |
Global precipitation response to changing forcings since 1870 |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Bichet, M. Wild, D. Folini, C. Schär |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 18 ; Nr. 11, no. 18 (2011-09-27), S.9961-9970 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010106
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-9961-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Predicting and adapting to changes in the hydrological cycle is one of the
major challenges for the 21st century. To better estimate how it
will respond to future changes in climate forcings, it is crucial to
understand how the hydrological cycle has evolved in the past and why. In
our study, we use an atmospheric global climate model with prescribed sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) to investigate how, in the period 1870–2005,
changing climate forcings have affected the global land temperature and
precipitation. We show that between 1870 and 2005, prescribed SSTs
(encapsulating other forcings and internal variability) determine the
decadal and interannual variabilities of the global land temperature and
precipitation, mostly via their influence in the tropics
(25° S–25° N).
In addition, using simulations with prescribed SSTs and considering the
atmospheric response alone, we find that between 1930 and 2005 increasing
aerosol emissions have reduced the global land temperature and precipitation
by up to 0.4 °C and 30 mm yr−1, respectively, and that between about
1950 and 2005 increasing greenhouse gas concentrations have increased them
by up to 0.25 °C and 10 mm yr−1, respectively. Finally, we suggest that
between about 1950 and 1970, increasing aerosol emissions had a larger
impact on the hydrological cycle than increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations. |
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