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| Titel |
The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Saikawa, J. Kurokawa, M. Takigawa, J. Borken-Kleefeld, D. L. Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, T. Ohara |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 18 ; Nr. 11, no. 18 (2011-09-16), S.9465-9484 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010074
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-9465-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the
impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian
air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS) for
China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000
(No-Policy, NoPol), and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards
are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles). The
Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as,
starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China
(except motorcycles) were required to meet the Euro 3
emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled
with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), we examine the regional air quality response to
China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3
scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan,
China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide
(CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds
(NMVOCs), black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) from China's vehicles
more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the
Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more
than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle
emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface
ozone (O3) mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5)
concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more
than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring,
surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in neighboring
countries are also reduced by more than 3 ppbv and 1 μg m−3,
respectively. We find that effective regulation of China's road transport
sector will be of significant benefit for air quality both within China and
across East Asia as well. |
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