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| Titel |
Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects |
| VerfasserIn |
A. F. Bais, K. Tourpali, A. Kazantzidis, H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, V. Eyring, H. Garny, D. Iachetti, P. Jöckel, A. Kubin, U. Langematz, E. Mancini, M. Michou, O. Morgenstern, T. Nakamura, P. A. Newman, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, W. Tian, Y. Yamashita |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 15 ; Nr. 11, no. 15 (2011-08-01), S.7533-7545 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009960
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-7533-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon
from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and
projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate
models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations
show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance.
In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to
increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both
stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a
global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the
21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different
parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the
spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to
1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 %
lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid
latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 %) in the tropics. The largest
reduction (~16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are
responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but
they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %). The year of return of
erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends
largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is
associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model
projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a
small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in
clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due
to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below
those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At
northern high latitudes (60°–90°), the projected decreases in cloud
transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the
yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by ~5 % with respect to
the 1960s. |
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