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| Titel |
How reliable are projections of future flood damage? |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Bubeck, H. Moel, L. M. Bouwer, J. C. J. H. Aerts |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 12 ; Nr. 11, no. 12 (2011-12-14), S.3293-3306 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009833
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-3293-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flood damage modelling is an important component in flood risk management,
and several studies have investigated the possible range of flood damage in
the coming decades. Generally, flood damage assessments are still
characterized by considerable uncertainties in stage-damage functions and
methodological differences in estimating exposed asset values. The high
variance that is commonly associated with absolute flood damage assessments
is the reason for the present study that investigates the reliability of
estimates of relative changes in the development of potential flood damage.
While studies that estimate (relative) changes in flood damage over time
usually address uncertainties resulting from different projections
(e.g. land-use characteristics), the influence of different flood damage
modelling approaches on estimates of relative changes in the development of
flood damage is largely unknown. In this paper, we evaluate the reliability
of estimates of relative changes in flood damage along the river Rhine
between 1990 and 2030 in terms of different flood-damage modelling
approaches. The results show that relative estimates of flood damage
developments differ by a factor of 1.4. These variations, which result from
the application of different modelling approaches, are considerably smaller
than differences between the approaches in terms of absolute damage
estimates (by a factor of 3.5 to 3.8), or than differences resulting from
land-use projections (by a factor of 3). The differences that exist
when estimating relative changes principally depend on the differences in
damage functions. In order to improve the reliability of relative estimates
of changes in the development of potential flood damage, future research
should focus on reducing the uncertainties related to damage functions. |
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