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| Titel |
Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Fronzek, T. R. Carter, M. Luoto |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 11 ; Nr. 11, no. 11 (2011-11-08), S.2981-2995 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009781
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2981-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present an analysis of different sources of impact model uncertainty and
combine this with probabilistic projections of climate change. Climatic
envelope models describing the spatial distribution of palsa mires (mire
complexes with permafrost peat hummocks) in northern Fennoscandia were
calibrated for three baseline periods, eight state-of-the-art modelling
techniques and 25 versions sampling the parameter uncertainty of each
technique – a total of 600 models. The sensitivity of these models to
changes in temperature and precipitation was analysed to construct impact
response surfaces. These were used to assess the behaviour of models when
extrapolated into changed climate conditions, so that new criteria,
in addition to conventional model evaluation statistics, could be defined for
determining model reliability. Impact response surfaces were also combined
with climate change projections to estimate the risk of areas suitable for
palsas disappearing during the 21st century. Structural differences in
impact models appeared to be a major source of uncertainty, with 60% of
the models giving implausible projections. Generalized additive modelling
(GAM) was judged to be the most reliable technique for model extrapolation.
Using GAM, it was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that the area
suitable for palsas is reduced to less than half the baseline area by the
period 2030–2049 and as likely (>66% probability) that the entire area
becomes unsuitable by 2080–2099 (A1B emission scenario). The risk of total
loss of palsa area was reduced for a mitigation scenario under which global
warming was constrained to below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial
climate, although it too implied a considerable reduction in area suitable for
palsas. |
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