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| Titel |
A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark |
| VerfasserIn |
C. D. Børgesen, J. E. Olesen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 9 ; Nr. 11, no. 9 (2011-09-23), S.2541-2553 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009677
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2541-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and
indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current
political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a
methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess
modelled wheat yields and nitrate leaching from arable land in Denmark. The
probabilistic projections describe a range of possible changes in
temperature and precipitation. Two methodologies to apply climate projections
in impact models were tested. Method A was a straightforward correction of
temperature and precipitation, where the same correction was applied to the
baseline weather data for all days in the year, and method B used seasonal
changes in precipitation and temperature to correct the baseline weather
data. Based on climate change projections for the time span 2000 to 2100 and
two soil types, the mean impact and the uncertainty of the climate change
projections were analysed. Combining probability density functions of
climate change projections with crop model simulations, the uncertainty and
trends in nitrogen (N) leaching and grain yields with climate change were
quantified. The uncertainty of climate change projections was the dominating
source of uncertainty in the projections of yield and N leaching, whereas the
methodology to seasonally apply climate change projections had a minor
effect. For most conditions, the probability of large yield reductions and
large N leaching losses tracked trends in mean yields and mean N leaching.
The impacts of the uncertainty in climate change were higher for loamy sandy
soil than for sandy soils due to generally higher yield levels for loamy
sandy soils. There were large differences between soil types in response to
climate change, illustrating the importance of including soil information
for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems. |
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