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| Titel |
Brief communication "Climatic covariates for the frequency analysis of heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean region" |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Tramblay, L. Neppel, J. Carreau |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 9 ; Nr. 11, no. 9 (2011-09-15), S.2463-2468 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009671
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2463-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In Mediterranean regions, climate studies indicate for the future a possible
increase in the extreme rainfall events occurrence and intensity. To
evaluate the future changes in the extreme event distribution, there is a
need to provide non-stationary models taking into account the
non-stationarity of climate. In this study, several climatic covariates are
tested in a non-stationary peaks-over-threshold modeling approach for heavy
rainfall events in Southern France. Results indicate that the introduction
of climatic covariates could improve the statistical modeling of extreme
events. In the case study, the frequency of southern synoptic circulation
patterns is found to improve the occurrence process of extreme events
modeled via a Poisson distribution, whereas for the magnitude of the events,
the air temperature and sea level pressure appear as valid covariates for
the Generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. Covariates describing
the humidity fluxes at monthly and seasonal time scales also provide
significant model improvements for the occurrence
and the magnitude of heavy rainfall events. With such models including
climatic covariates, it becomes possible to asses the risk of extreme events
given certain climatic conditions at monthly or seasonal timescales. The
future changes in the heavy rainfall distribution can also be evaluated
using covariates computed by climate models. |
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